Probability Sports Betting
Fortunately for sports bettors, the probability of winning or losing a sporting event is less certain. Numerous factors influence the outcome, and without having definite expectations determined by the. If you’ve started to research exactly how sports betting works, then you’ve probably heard the term “implied probability”. The odds are what suggest a particular outcome in any match, and the implied.
Moneyline wagers represent the most straightforward way to bet on sports. A moneyline bet tasks the bettor with simply choosing the winner of a game, with no point spread involved.
All moneyline odds can be converted into implied probability, breaking down each team’s chances of winning as implied by the sportsbook’s moneyline on the game.
Converting moneyline odds into implied probability takes a bit of algebraic work. The Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator takes that work out of the equation, however, instantly converting any moneyline number into an implied probability of winning.
Implied Probability
Enter the American odds in the space provided and hit calculate to get the percent value. Note that you must place the “-” in front of favorite moneyline odds to get the proper implied probability.
What Is A Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet functions as a straight-up wager on which team will win a game. This kind of bet doesn’t involve a point spread.
The underdog on the moneyline pays out at greater odds than the favorite. Sportsbooks generally display the moneyline, point spread, and totals odds on a game, but all three function as separate bets.
Here’s a look at how DraftKings Sportsbook presented the lines on Super Bowl LV a few days before the game:
DraftKings Sportsbook Super Bowl LV Lines
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 (-115) | Over 56 (-108) | (-162) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3 (-106) | Under 56 (-113) | (+140) |
US sportsbooks generally display American odds, with potential payouts denoted by the “+” or “-“ in front of the odds. The “+” indicates the underdog on the moneyline, while the “-“ denotes the favorite.
DraftKings sets Tampa Bay as the Super Bowl LV underdog, with the Buccaneers paying out at (+140) moneyline odds. The sportsbook puts favored Kansas City at (-162) on the moneyline.
Note that the point spread and totals columns for the Super Bowl also display an American Odds payout. Moneyline bets don’t involve any kind of point spread, however, and only concerns the straight-up winner of the game.
Finding Value In A Moneyline Bet
Best Online Betting Sports
Using an implied probability calculator, you can convert the moneyline odds into an implied chance of winning for each team.
In this case, the (-162) moneyline on the Chiefs implies that Kansas City has a 61.83% chance of winning. Tampa Bay’s (+140) odds convert to a 41.67% chance of winning.
Astute bettors look for value in moneyline bets, and that assessment requires converting the odds into implied probability. If you think the Buccaneers have better than a 41.67% chance of winning, for instance, the Tampa Bay (+140) line presents value.
What Is An Implied Probability Calculator?
You can plug in and moneyline odds into the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator and convert those odds into implied probability. Other sports betting odds calculators include tools that allow you to calculate moneyline odds or the house edge by inputting the sportsbook’s offered moneyline odds.
Our implied probability calculator works the same way. Simply input the moneyline odds on either side of a bet, and the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator gives you an instant calculation of that team’s implied probability.
For “+” moneyline odds, simply input the number without the “+” sign. So for the Buccaneers (+140) odds, for instance, just type “140” into the “American Odds” field in the calculator.
After inputting “140” and clicking “Calculate” we see that Tampa Bay’s implied winning probability is 41.67%.
For “-“ moneyline odds, be sure to include the “-“ sign in front of the inputted number. Calculating Kansas City’s (-162) moneyline odds yields a 61.83% implied winning probability for the Chiefs.
Using An Implied Probability Calculator To Place A Sports Bet
This Implied Probability Calculator converts American odds into implied probability. This calculation converts the odds into a form that is easier to quantify: percent likelihood of the event occurring. This type of calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means the combined probabilities don’t add up to exactly 100%.
How The Implied Probability Calculator Works
Implied probability is most useful when determining the sportsbook’s edge over the bettor. It is important to note: this is not the margin/vig/juice. This is simply the advantage they have in being profitable over the bettor. Though it will never tell you which team to select, determining the percent implied probability over 100% will point out lines where the book’s advantage is lower. In being a successful sports bettor every percentage point counts, and each point the book gives back is one more win toward profitability for the bettor.
Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds
Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flipping example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Once again, the calculation is slightly different for minus odds versus plus odds.
Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)
Which looks like:
Implied Probability = (-1*(-110)) / (-1(-110) + 100)
or:
52.4% or 0.524 = 110 / 210
That number should be familiar to experienced bettors as the break-even winning percentage bettors shoot for. Because -110 on one side of a bet usually means -110 on the other side too, we can add all the probabilities (in this case another -110 probability) to determine the sportsbook’s edge.
(Heads Probability + Tails Probability) – 1 = Sportsbook’s Edge
or:
(0.524 + 0.524) – 1 = 0.048 or 4.8%
Ideally you should be looking for bets with the lowest sportsbook edge you can. It is a subtle edge in sports betting, but remember the difference between winning at 52% and 53% is a world of difference.
Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds
Let’s work a positive odds example. We’ll use the following moneyline bet where the favorite is -190 and the underdog is +160. First we break down the implied probability on +160 odds :
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
or:
38.4% or 0.384 = 100 / (160 + 100)
To get the other outcome, we calculate the -190 odds:
65.5% or 0.655 = (-1(-190)) / (-1(-190) + 100)
In the above example we see that the sportsbook’s advantage is:
(0.384 + 0.655) – 1 = 3.9%
What this tells us is that with no other information a bet on the -190/+160 is more likely to be successful over the long term than the -110/-110 example.
What Is Line Movement?
Sportsbooks install moneyline odds on each game that gives the house a slight edge over the player in the long run.
In the Super Bowl example above, for instance, the implied probabilities for the Buccaneers and Chiefs add up to more than 100%. This happens because the sportsbooks offer this bet with the built-in house edge.
The sportsbooks aim to get enough bets on both sides of the Super Bowl to allow the house to make money no matter what. If the public puts heavy betting interest on one team, the sportsbook will start to shift the line the other way, with the goal of producing more wagers on the other team.
Legal Online Sports Betting In The US
More than a dozen US states currently offer legal online sports betting. Virginia and Michigan became the latest states to launch mobile sports wagering, with both states doing so in January 2021.
Several notable brands compete for market share in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These states represent some of the top online sports betting markets in the US.
States That Offer Legal Online Sports Betting
- Nevada
- West Virginia
- New Hampshire
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- Montana
- Washington DC
Top US Online Sportsbooks
FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel Sportsbook takes the No. 1 spot as the biggest online sportsbook by market share in the US. The platform offers a robust selection of sports, betting types, and deposit/cashout options.
Ten states currently enjoy access to the FanDuel Sportsbook platform. Those jurisdictions include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Virginia.
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings and FanDuel battle for mobile sports betting supremacy in several states. DraftKings Sportsbook offers one of the most comprehensive online sports betting platforms in the legal US industry.
Eleven different states can bet online at DraftKings Sportsbook. That list includes New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
BetRivers Sportsbook
Known in the sports betting industry for its player-friendly welcome bonuses and creative prop bets, BetRivers has emerged as one of the top online sportsbooks in the US in just a short time.
BetRivers takes online sports bets in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia.
Implied Probability Calculator FAQ
Is online sports betting legal in the US?
Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.
More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.
When should I use an implied probability calculator?
Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.
Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.
Is it legal to use an implied probability calculator?
Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.
Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.
Who sets the odds at online sportsbooks?
Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.
How do I convert American odds to fractional odds?
To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.
To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.
What is the best online sportsbook in the US?
The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.
Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.
Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.
More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.
Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.
Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.
Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.
Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.
Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.
To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.
To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.
The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.
Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.
Welcome to the Sports Betting Odds section of The Sports Geek. If you are new to sports betting and don’t understand how to read betting odds (+150, -110, +2200, etc) we will lay it all out for you and help you learn how the betting odds work.
Betting Site | Bonus | Bet Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | up to €30 Free Bet | Go to Site | |
| 2 | 22Bet | 100% up to €122 | Go to Site |
| 3 | 100% up to €200 | Go to Site | |
| 4 | 10Bet | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
| 5 | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
Sports Betting Odds Explained
Many people don’t know how to read or calculate sports betting odds, so below we have done our best on explaining how betting odds work. The most common type of sports betting odds used in North America are the American style odds which we explain below.
American Style Sports Betting Odds
Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called “American Odds”. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams:
American Odds
- Matchup Odds
- New England Patriots +120
- Pittsburgh Steelers -140
The number shown in the bracket represents the odds. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign.
The sign in front of the number indicates whether placing a wager on that outcome will pay out more money then you have wagered or less money then you have wagered. If the odd is negative (-) it means that outcome is more likely to happen and placing a bet on that outcome would payout less than the amount you wagered, while a positive (+) odd shows that the outcome is less likely to happen and it would pay out more than the amount you wagered.
The next step is figuring out exactly how much the bet pays out, which is where the numbers in the odds come into play.
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -140 in our example above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So using the -140, this would show us that you would need to bet $140 in order to win $100 in profits. You can easily substitute the $100 bet for a $10 bet by moving the decimal place over one spot, showing us that you would need to wager $14 in order to win $10 in profits.
Examples:
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +120 in our example above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +120 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on that outcome would pay out $120 in profits. Again this can easily be converted into smaller or larger size bets. A $10 bet on +120 odds would pay out $12 in profits.
Examples:
Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site.
In this example you can see Los Angeles is listed at +130 ($100 bet pays $130 plus of course your original wager back) and New England is listed at -150 ($150 bet pays $100).
The great thing about betting online is that the online sportsbooks will do the calculations for you before you place your bet. You can click on the outcome or team you would like to bet on, and then input the amount you wish to wager and it will show you your potential pay out before you confirm your bet.
Probability Odds Sports Betting
Ready To Start Betting?MyBookie and BetUS are my two favorite sportsbooks and make betting very easy. You will also get a Free Money Bonus at each sportsbook if you follow either link above.
Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds
High Probability Sports Betting
Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this:
Probability Theory Sports Betting
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on the USA at 2.40 you would simply need to multiply your $10 wager by the 2.40 odds (10 x 2.40) to find out that the payout is $24. It is important to realize that with decimal style odds it includes the amount you wagered, so to find out profits you would need to subtract your wager ($24 – $10) to find out your potential payout is $14 in profits.
Implied Probability Sports Betting
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on Brazil you would again just multiply $10 x 1.55 to find out that you would win $15.50 total or $5.50 in profits.
Probability Calculator Sports Betting
Decimal style betting odds are very simple to understand, but you won’t see them displayed in many North American sportsbooks. With that said, most online betting sites will allow you to chose the style of betting odds you want displayed, with American odds set as the default.